Vernon’s population growing

By Kim Flick Sep 07 2007 Vernon Morningstar

As a long range planner, I need to know who I am planning for, both today and tomorrow. That is why the City of Vernon’s first step in updating its official community plan (OCP) was to look at our population and its expected growth. Today, some 36,800 people call Vernon home. This is up 11 per cent from 1996. How does this compare with our neighbours? In that same period, Kelowna experienced a population increase of 21 per cent, Penticton had an eight per cent increase and Kamloops a six per cent increase.

Given that our population continues to increase, it is interesting to note that since 2000, Vernon has experienced a zero or negative “natural increase” in its population. That means that more people die in Vernon each year than are born here. It is the people that move here, or “net migration,” that drives Vernon’s population increase. Vernon’s climate, amenities and lifestyle make this a highly desirable place to live, especially in light of large urban centres becoming less and less affordable. Vernon is also proving to be very attractive to the retirement crowd.

The median age of a Vernon resident today is 41.6 years, higher than the B.C. median age of 38.4 years (median means that half the population is older than this age and half is younger). Only two B.C. communities have a higher median age - Penticton (44.3 years) and White Rock (50.9 years). In fact, 21 per cent of Vernon’s population is 65 years or older. That number is much higher than the B.C. average of 13 per cent. That high median age, and significant number of people aged 65 years or older, contribute to Vernon’s negative natural population increase. Because there are fewer young people, there are fewer people to start families. And yet, we have grown and the projections indicate that we will continue to grow. The population is expected to increase to 49,600 in 2026, and to reach 51,600 by 2031. Those aged 65 years and older will account for 26 per cent of the population and the median age will rise to 47.4 years. Put another way, one Vernonite out of every four will be older than 65.

It isn’t just the retirees moving to Vernon that account for this increase in the seniors’ population. The Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are aging. The Baby Boomer generation is larger - far larger - than any other generation. As the Boomers age, they require appropriate housing, recreation, health care, mobility and transportation support - far more than we have provided for our current seniors’ population, as there will be far more of them.

The OCP is not just about accommodating trends - it’s also about subtly shaping and influencing trends, as well. A strong, vibrant community includes people of all ages. What must we do to ensure that we keep young people here? What do we do to attract families to Vernon? How do we make Vernon appealing to the under-65 crowd? These are issues that we are looking at in the review of the OCP. If you are interested in more information on Vernon’s demographics and population projections, please go to our Web site at www.vernon.sgas.bc.ca.
All of the background studies, including Population and Housing Profile and Projection for the City of Vernon, 2001-2031, can be found there. You can also call 545-1361 for a copy of the report.

Kim Flick is a long range planner with the City of Vernon.