HST Referendum Prediction

Posted 25 August, 2011 by Sacha Peter BC Election 2013:
The pollsters are not going to give a referendum prediction. Angus Reid bravely distributed an early June survey that stated that 56% would go YES and 44% would go NO. I believe this is close.

I will hazard my prediction and put my neck on the line as usual. After some number crunching, my prediction is that the HST referendum will go as follows:
YES: 59%
NO: 41%
Assumptions include the following:
0. The relatively high turnout (almost approaching 2009 election levels) allows for a bit more conviction on the prediction, although the population that voted in 2009 is not an identical match to those that cast a referendum ballot.
1. The referendum is partisan. The average BC Liberal voter is going to favour the NO side less strongly than the NDP voter favouring the YES side. Although the majority of voters are not hyper-partisan, there is enough partisanship out there to significantly affect the results. A partisan voter is also much more likely to cast a ballot than a non-partisan.
2. The referendum ballot is self-selecting. While the usual people that feel the obligation to vote will cast their ballots dutifully (tending to be of the older demographic), they will be offset by the motivated people willing to cast a YES ballot that otherwise would not show up as signal in regular polling.
3. The confusing nature of the ballot question will not factor into the result.
4. The referendum is income (or more strictly speaking, net worth) dependent. Richer areas will be in favour of the HST, while poorer areas will not be.
5. The rural/urban divide will have the rural area favour YES, although this is somewhat mitigated by the preceding factors mentioned in this post.
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Don Quixote Note:  My prediction is 52% Yes - 48 % No.
 Feel free to post your predictions as a comment below.  Closest gets bragging rights with the only reward being that you see your name or alias on VernonBlog as the HST winning predictor.