Voter Migration Matrix
ELECTION FORECASTER
developed by Prof. Werner Antweiler Guess the probability with which a 2009 voter will vote for a particular party in 2013. The sum of each row in the table below must be equal to 1.000 precisely. Once you have completed your guess of the voter migration matrix, press the FORECAST button. The forecaster program will apply your voter migration matrix to the 2009 election results to find out which party will win in each riding. Leaving the matrix unchanged will display the 2009 election results. You can also display results riding by riding in descending order of the vote share to identify "safe" and "marginal" seats for individual parties.
----------
Don Quixote Note: This is a fun election predictor. How accurate it is depends on how close your prediction of change in votes from 1 party to another from the 2009 election to the 2013 actual result turns out. TRY IT OUT.
No comments:
Post a Comment